Sarmiento vs Rosario Central Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 15
Liga Profesional Argentina · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 00:15 UTC · Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, Junín · updated 2026-10-25
Sarmiento welcome Rosario Central to Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 15 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 00:15 UTC.
Sarmiento have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 15 matches, with a 67% win rate. Rosario Central have played 33 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 55% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 44% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Rosario Central are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 25% and Sarmiento at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sarmiento 1.16, Rosario Central 1.72.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (30 and 33 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sarmiento: form and key numbers
In style Sarmiento are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.02 a match created, 1.63 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.3).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (88% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Rosario Central: form and key numbers
In style Rosario Central keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.16 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.1).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (45% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Sarmiento vs Rosario Central: season averages side by side
| Sarmiento | Per match this season | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Matches | 33 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.02 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.46 |
| 1.63 | xG conceded | 1.16 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 3.7 | On target | 5.0 |
| 43.3 | Possession % | 57.0 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.9 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Sarmiento
- Javier Burrai GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 48 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 38% of his position)
- Agustín Seyral CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 42 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 5% of his position)
Rosario Central
- Ángel Di María RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 71 · Crosser, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Pol Fernández CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 55 · Creator, Long passer (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jáminton Campaz
Jáminton Campaz, 26 · Rosario Central · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 73
Jáminton Campaz, 26, plays as a winger for Rosario Central in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and big chances created. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 73
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.17 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.76 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.93 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.66 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Jáminton Campaz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jáminton Campaz's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sarmiento vs Rosario Central prediction
Rosario Central should have more of the ball, with Sarmiento likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Sarmiento are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Rosario Central work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.16 for Sarmiento and 1.72 for Rosario Central - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 57%. Rosario Central have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Sarmiento 1-2 Rosario Central
Sarmiento vs Rosario Central betting tips
- Tip 1: Rosario Central win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.88 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 12.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Sunday 25 October 2026
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- River Plate vs Racing Club Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
Sarmiento vs Rosario Central: questions and answers
When is Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?
Sarmiento vs Rosario Central is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 00:15 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 15.
Where is Sarmiento vs Rosario Central played?
At Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, Junín, Sarmiento's home ground.
Who will win Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?
Rosario Central are the favourites: Sarmiento 25%, draw 25%, Rosario Central 50%. Our prediction is Sarmiento 1-2 Rosario Central.
Who is the player to watch in Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?
Jáminton Campaz of Rosario Central: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.