Sporting Braga vs Famalicão Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 10
Liga Portugal · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga · updated 2026-10-25
Sporting Braga welcome Famalicão to Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC.
Sporting Braga have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Famalicão have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sporting Braga are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 29% and Famalicão at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sporting Braga 1.39, Famalicão 0.89.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 45%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sporting Braga: form and key numbers
In style Sporting Braga keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.23 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 58.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Famalicão: form and key numbers
In style Famalicão keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.84 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Sporting Braga vs Famalicão: season averages side by side
| Sporting Braga | Per match this season | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.84 |
| 0.88 | xG conceded | 1.42 |
| 13.5 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 4.5 | On target | 3.3 |
| 58.5 | Possession % | 55.3 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 63% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Sporting Braga
- Vítor Carvalho CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Ricardo Horta AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 57 · Creator, Press-resistant (top 15% of his position)
Famalicão
- Marcos Peña CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 51 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
- Léo Realpe CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 47 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Moutinho
João Moutinho, 40 · Sporting Braga · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 60
João Moutinho, 40, plays as a central midfielder for Sporting Braga in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in passes and pass accuracy. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 60
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 83.64 / 90 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 89% |
| Long balls | 2.70 / 90 | 70% |
| Dispossessed | 0.48 / 90 | 68% |
| Key passes | 1.75 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Secure passer.
- What João Moutinho is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Moutinho's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sporting Braga vs Famalicão prediction
Sporting Braga should have more of the ball; Sporting Braga are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Famalicão like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.39 for Sporting Braga and 0.89 for Famalicão - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 45%. Sporting Braga have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sporting Braga 2-0 Famalicão
Sporting Braga vs Famalicão betting tips
- Tip 1: Sporting Braga win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.28 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Sporting Braga vs Famalicão: questions and answers
When is Sporting Braga vs Famalicão?
Sporting Braga vs Famalicão is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10.
Where is Sporting Braga vs Famalicão played?
At Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga, Sporting Braga's home ground.
Who will win Sporting Braga vs Famalicão?
Sporting Braga are the favourites: Sporting Braga 48%, draw 29%, Famalicão 23%. Our prediction is Sporting Braga 2-0 Famalicão.
Who is the player to watch in Sporting Braga vs Famalicão?
João Moutinho of Sporting Braga: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Braga vs Famalicão?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.