Tigre vs Sarmiento Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio José Dellagiovanna, San Fernando · updated 2026-10-25
Tigre welcome Sarmiento to Estadio José Dellagiovanna in San Fernando in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Tigre have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 23% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 15 matches, with a 71% win rate. Sarmiento have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 15 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Tigre are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 25% and Sarmiento at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Tigre 1.71, Sarmiento 1.05.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (30 and 30 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Tigre: form and key numbers
In style Tigre press high, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.8).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Sarmiento: form and key numbers
In style Sarmiento are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.02 a match created, 1.63 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.3).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (13% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Tigre vs Sarmiento: season averages side by side
| Tigre | Per match this season | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Matches | 30 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.02 |
| 1.27 | xG conceded | 1.63 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 4.2 | On target | 3.7 |
| 48.9 | Possession % | 43.3 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.9 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Players to watch
Tigre
- Gonzalo Martínez AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 1% of his position)
- Alfio Oviedo CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 54 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
Sarmiento
- Javier Burrai GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 48 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 38% of his position)
- Agustín Seyral CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 42 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Federico Álvarez
Federico Álvarez, 32 · Tigre · LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 43
Federico Álvarez, 32, plays as a full-back for Tigre in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in interceptions and successful dribbles. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 43
- LWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 33
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 1.80 / 90 | 85% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.90 / 90 | 79% |
| Dribbled past | 0.45 / 90 | 72% |
| Duels won | 5.86 / 90 | 64% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.45 / 90 | 50% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ½ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Reads the game.
- What Federico Álvarez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Federico Álvarez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Tigre vs Sarmiento prediction
Tigre should have more of the ball, with Sarmiento likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.71 for Tigre and 1.05 for Sarmiento - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 54%. Tigre have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Tigre 2-1 Sarmiento
Tigre vs Sarmiento betting tips
- Tip 1: Tigre win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.76 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Sunday 25 October 2026
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- River Plate vs Racing Club Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
Tigre vs Sarmiento: questions and answers
When is Tigre vs Sarmiento?
Tigre vs Sarmiento is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16.
Where is Tigre vs Sarmiento played?
At Estadio José Dellagiovanna, San Fernando, Tigre's home ground.
Who will win Tigre vs Sarmiento?
Tigre are the favourites: Tigre 52%, draw 25%, Sarmiento 23%. Our prediction is Tigre 2-1 Sarmiento.
Who is the player to watch in Tigre vs Sarmiento?
Federico Álvarez of Tigre: a defensive full-back with a Moneyball Score of 43 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Tigre vs Sarmiento?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.