Torreense vs Celtic Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estádio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras · updated 2026-11-13
Torreense welcome Celtic to Estádio Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Torreense have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Celtic have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Torreense are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 24% and Celtic at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Torreense 1.86, Celtic 1.40.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Torreense: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.08 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.7).
- Shots: 8.5 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 39.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Celtic: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Torreense vs Celtic: season averages side by side
| Torreense | Per match this season | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 2.8 |
| 1.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.13 |
| 8.5 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 3.3 | On target | 5.3 |
| 39.0 | Possession % | 48.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.62 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Torreense vs Celtic prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.86 for Torreense and 1.40 for Celtic - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 64%. Torreense have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Torreense 2-1 Celtic
Torreense vs Celtic: what the numbers say
- 1. Torreense unbeaten (win or draw) 71% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.26 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Torreense vs Celtic: questions and answers
When is Torreense vs Celtic?
Torreense vs Celtic is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Torreense vs Celtic played?
At Estádio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras, Torreense's home ground.
Who will win Torreense vs Celtic?
Torreense are the favourites: Torreense 48%, draw 24%, Celtic 29%. Our prediction is Torreense 2-1 Celtic.
How many goals will there be in Torreense vs Celtic?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.