Toulouse vs Rennes Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Ligue 1 · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse · updated 2026-11-15
Toulouse welcome Rennes to Stadium de Toulouse in Toulouse in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Toulouse have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Rennes have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Toulouse are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 22% and Rennes at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Toulouse 2.14, Rennes 1.64.
- Over 2.5 goals: 73% · both teams to score: 72%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Toulouse: form and key numbers
In style Toulouse press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 51.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Rennes: form and key numbers
In style Rennes cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.91 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Toulouse vs Rennes: season averages side by side
| Toulouse | Per match this season | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.91 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.90 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 4.7 | On target | 6.0 |
| 51.9 | Possession % | 51.7 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 70% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Toulouse
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 71 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Casper Tengstedt CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 56 · Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 9% of his position)
Rennes
- Charlie Cresswell CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mahamadou Nagida
Mahamadou Nagida, 21 · Rennes · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 69
Mahamadou Nagida, 21, plays as a wing-back for Rennes in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in interceptions and successful dribbles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 69
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 69
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.40 / 90 | 99% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.65 / 90 | 97% |
| Duels won | 6.60 / 90 | 90% |
| Tackles | 2.85 / 90 | 86% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.35 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Dribbler, Duel winner.
- What Mahamadou Nagida is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mahamadou Nagida's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Toulouse vs Rennes prediction
Toulouse should have more of the ball; Toulouse like to take players on; Rennes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals - 2.14 for Toulouse and 1.64 for Rennes - with over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 72%. Toulouse have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Toulouse 3-1 Rennes
Toulouse vs Rennes: what the numbers say
- 1. Toulouse unbeaten (win or draw) 71% between them
- 2. 4 or more goals 52% by the model, 3.78 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 72% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 21 November 2026
- Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Monaco vs Auxerre Saturday 21 November 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais Saturday 21 November 2026
- Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026
- Paris vs Angers SCO Sunday 22 November 2026
- Lorient vs Rennes Sunday 22 November 2026
Toulouse vs Rennes: questions and answers
When is Toulouse vs Rennes?
Toulouse vs Rennes is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12.
Where is Toulouse vs Rennes played?
At Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse, Toulouse's home ground.
Who will win Toulouse vs Rennes?
Toulouse are the favourites: Toulouse 49%, draw 22%, Rennes 29%. Our prediction is Toulouse 3-1 Rennes.
Who is the player to watch in Toulouse vs Rennes?
Mahamadou Nagida of Rennes: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Rennes?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.