TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · SNP Arena, Sinsheim · updated 2026-11-13
TSG Hoffenheim welcome Sturm Graz to SNP Arena in Sinsheim in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Sturm Graz have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, TSG Hoffenheim are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 24% and Sturm Graz at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: TSG Hoffenheim 1.87, Sturm Graz 1.02.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.63 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 17.5 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.8 a match.
- Discipline: 3.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Sturm Graz: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.8).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 41.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match this season | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.63 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 17.5 | Shots | 15.0 |
| 5.3 | On target | 4.3 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 41.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 7.8 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 3.5 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Koki Machida CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 70 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Adam Hlozek
Adam Hlozek, 24 · TSG Hoffenheim · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 65
Adam Hlozek, 24, plays as a centre-forward for TSG Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 65
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 59
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.98 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.55 / 90 | 79% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.52 / 90 | 75% |
| Duels won | 5.54 / 90 | 75% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.77 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume.
- What Adam Hlozek is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Adam Hlozek's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.87 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.02 for Sturm Graz - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 55%. TSG Hoffenheim have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Sturm Graz
TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz: what the numbers say
- 1. TSG Hoffenheim win, the likeliest result 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 55% by the model, 2.89 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 13.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz?
TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz played?
At SNP Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz?
TSG Hoffenheim are the favourites: TSG Hoffenheim 57%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 20%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Sturm Graz.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz?
Adam Hlozek of TSG Hoffenheim: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.