Twente vs Thun Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1
UEFA Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Twente welcome Thun to De Grolsch Veste in Enschede in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Twente have played 4 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Thun have played 4 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 5.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Twente are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 15% and Thun at 10%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Twente -2 at 1.84, Thun at 1.84. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.80, under 1.86, which gives over 51%.
Twente: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.20 a match created (goals minus xG: +4.2).
- Shots: 23.5 a match, 9.0 on target.
- Possession: 61.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Thun: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Twente vs Thun: season averages side by side
| Twente | Per match | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 3.25 | Goals | 1.75 |
| 23.5 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 9.0 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 0.8 |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 7.8 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 15.5 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Twente vs Thun prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 4.8 goals - 3.61 for Twente and 1.22 for Thun - with over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams scoring at 69%. Twente have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Twente 3-1 Thun
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Twente vs Thun betting tips
- Tip 1: Twente to win 75% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 86% by the model, 4.83 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Twente vs Thun: questions and answers
When is Twente vs Thun?
Twente vs Thun is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is Twente vs Thun played?
At De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, Twente's home ground.
Who will win Twente vs Thun?
Twente are the favourites: Twente 75%, draw 15%, Thun 10%. Our prediction is Twente 3-1 Thun.
How many goals will there be in Twente vs Thun?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 86%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.