Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio 15 de Abril, Ciudad de Santa Fe · updated 2026-10-25
Unión Santa Fe welcome Vélez Sarsfield to Estadio 15 de Abril in Ciudad de Santa Fe in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Unión Santa Fe have played 31 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 14 matches, with a 60% win rate. Vélez Sarsfield have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 14 matches, with a 31% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Unión Santa Fe 40%, the draw 26%, Vélez Sarsfield 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Unión Santa Fe 1.49, Vélez Sarsfield 1.35.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 30 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Unión Santa Fe: form and key numbers
In style Unión Santa Fe play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.38 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.1).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Vélez Sarsfield: form and key numbers
In style Vélez Sarsfield keep the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.34 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 37% of matches (36% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield: season averages side by side
| Unión Santa Fe | Per match this season | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 30 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| 1.38 | xG conceded | 1.34 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.9 | On target | 4.3 |
| 49.1 | Possession % | 53.7 |
| 16% | Clean sheets % | 37% |
| 61% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Players to watch
Unión Santa Fe
- Lucas Ayala LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 45 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Juan Pablo Ludueña CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 44 · Disciplined, Long passer (top 9% of his position)
Vélez Sarsfield
- Ronaldo Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 56 · Accurate shooter, Clinical finisher (top 15% of his position)
- Diego Valdés AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 51 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 15% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mateo Del Blanco
Mateo Del Blanco, 22 · Unión Santa Fe · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 63
Mateo Del Blanco, 22, plays as a wing-back for Unión Santa Fe in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and successful dribbles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 63
- LB · Full-back Natural, 61
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.40 / 90 | 95% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.83 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 2.68 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected goals | 0.11 / 90 | 52% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Dribbler, Chance creator.
- What Mateo Del Blanco is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mateo Del Blanco's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield prediction
Vélez Sarsfield should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.49 for Unión Santa Fe and 1.35 for Vélez Sarsfield - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Unión Santa Fe 1-1 Vélez Sarsfield
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.84 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Sunday 25 October 2026
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- River Plate vs Racing Club Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield: questions and answers
When is Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield?
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16.
Where is Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield played?
At Estadio 15 de Abril, Ciudad de Santa Fe, Unión Santa Fe's home ground.
Who will win Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield?
It is close: Unión Santa Fe 40%, draw 26%, Vélez Sarsfield 34%. Our prediction is Unión Santa Fe 1-1 Vélez Sarsfield.
Who is the player to watch in Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield?
Mateo Del Blanco of Unión Santa Fe: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
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