Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 15
Liga Profesional Argentina · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 22:15 UTC · Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires · updated 2026-10-25
Vélez Sarsfield welcome San Lorenzo to Estadio José Amalfitani in Buenos Aires in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 15 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 22:15 UTC.
Vélez Sarsfield have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 69% win rate. San Lorenzo have played 31 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 32% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 30% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Vélez Sarsfield are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 30% and San Lorenzo at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Vélez Sarsfield 1.29, San Lorenzo 0.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 34% · both teams to score: 40%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (30 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Vélez Sarsfield: form and key numbers
In style Vélez Sarsfield keep the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.34 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 37% of matches (64% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
San Lorenzo: form and key numbers
In style San Lorenzo play long and direct, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.88 a match created, 1.28 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.4).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 48% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo: season averages side by side
| Vélez Sarsfield | Per match this season | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.88 |
| 1.34 | xG conceded | 1.28 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 4.3 | On target | 3.7 |
| 53.7 | Possession % | 48.8 |
| 37% | Clean sheets % | 48% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 29% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.89 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Vélez Sarsfield
- Ronaldo Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 56 · Accurate shooter, Clinical finisher (top 15% of his position)
- Diego Valdés AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 51 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 15% of his position)
San Lorenzo
- Gastón Hernández CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 6% of his position)
- Franco Lorenzon CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Blocks shots, Ball-winner (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mathías De Ritis
Mathías De Ritis, 23 · San Lorenzo · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 44
Mathías De Ritis, 23, plays as a full-back for San Lorenzo in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and interceptions. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 44
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 41
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 34
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 0.87 / 90 | 87% |
| Interceptions | 1.75 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.13 / 90 | 71% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.69 / 90 | 60% |
| Key passes | 0.87 / 90 | 48% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Reads the game.
- What Mathías De Ritis is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mathías De Ritis's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo prediction
Vélez Sarsfield should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals - 1.29 for Vélez Sarsfield and 0.78 for San Lorenzo - with over 2.5 goals at 34% and both teams scoring at 40%. Vélez Sarsfield have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 San Lorenzo
Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo betting tips
- Tip 1: Vélez Sarsfield win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 2.07 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Sunday 25 October 2026
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- River Plate vs Racing Club Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo: questions and answers
When is Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 22:15 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 15.
Where is Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo played?
At Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires, Vélez Sarsfield's home ground.
Who will win Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
Vélez Sarsfield are the favourites: Vélez Sarsfield 48%, draw 30%, San Lorenzo 22%. Our prediction is Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 San Lorenzo.
Who is the player to watch in Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
Mathías De Ritis of San Lorenzo: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 34%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.