Vitória Guimarães vs Porto Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 11
Liga Portugal · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães · updated 2026-10-25
Vitória Guimarães welcome Porto to Estádio D. Afonso Henriques in Guimarães in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Vitória Guimarães have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Porto have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 56% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Porto are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 28% and Vitória Guimarães at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Vitória Guimarães 1.01, Porto 1.49.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Vitória Guimarães: form and key numbers
In style Vitória Guimarães keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created, 0.94 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.3).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Porto: form and key numbers
In style Porto keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.20 a match created, 0.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Vitória Guimarães vs Porto: season averages side by side
| Vitória Guimarães | Per match this season | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 0.4 |
| 1.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.20 |
| 0.94 | xG conceded | 0.94 |
| 17.6 | Shots | 15.8 |
| 4.6 | On target | 6.2 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 55.2 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 56% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 44% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 6.9 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Vitória Guimarães
- Gustavo Silva RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
- Tony Strata RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Hard to dribble past, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Porto
- Jan Bednarek CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Borja Sainz LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga, 24 · Porto · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 64
Gabri Veiga, 24, plays as an attacking midfielder for Porto in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 64
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.94 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 88% |
| Dispossessed | 0.63 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected goals | 0.44 / 90 | 81% |
| Shots | 3.44 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Press-resistant.
- What Gabri Veiga is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gabri Veiga's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Vitória Guimarães vs Porto prediction
Porto should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.01 for Vitória Guimarães and 1.49 for Porto - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 50%. Porto have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Vitória Guimarães 1-2 Porto
Vitória Guimarães vs Porto betting tips
- Tip 1: Porto win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 54% by the model, 2.50 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 12.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Vitória Guimarães vs Porto: questions and answers
When is Vitória Guimarães vs Porto?
Vitória Guimarães vs Porto is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11.
Where is Vitória Guimarães vs Porto played?
At Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães, Vitória Guimarães's home ground.
Who will win Vitória Guimarães vs Porto?
Porto are the favourites: Vitória Guimarães 25%, draw 28%, Porto 48%. Our prediction is Vitória Guimarães 1-2 Porto.
Who is the player to watch in Vitória Guimarães vs Porto?
Gabri Veiga of Porto: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vitória Guimarães vs Porto?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.