Ajax vs Atalanta: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · updated 2026-10-09
Ajax host Atalanta in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Ajax clear favourites at 77%, puts the draw at 13% and expects about 4.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ajax 3.28, Atalanta 1.18.
- Over 2.5 goals: 82% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano, 26 · Atalanta · DMF · Ball-winner
Moneyball Scout picks Gianluca Gaetano as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 48 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 49, defensive 44).
- Interceptions: 1.88 per 90 minutes, better than 75% of defensive midfielders
- Pass accuracy: 90%, better than 63% of defensive midfielders
- Tackles: 2.19 per 90 minutes, better than 60% of defensive midfielders
Ajax score 3.7 goals a match this season from 3.39 expected: stopping them runs through Gianluca Gaetano.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Ajax | Per match this season | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 3.7 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 3.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.93 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.82 |
| 24.2 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 10.3 | On target | 3.4 |
| 66.2 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 9.2 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 7.05 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Atalanta in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi goalkeeper · rating 7.36 · 5 apps
- Lazar Samardžić midfielder · rating 6.97 · 5 apps
- Charles De Ketelaere forward · rating 6.88 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.