CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia · updated 2026-10-09
CSKA Sofia host Monaco in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Monaco favourites at 45%, puts the draw at 30% and expects about 2.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 0.86, Monaco 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 36% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Paris Brunner as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 53, defensive 43).
- Goals: 0.92 per 90 minutes, better than 84% of centre-forwards
- Shots on target: 56%, better than 79% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 3.68 per 90 minutes, better than 76% of centre-forwards
CSKA Sofia concede 1.4 goals a match this season, more than the league's average: the space a poacher like Paris Brunner lives on.
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| CSKA Sofia | Per match this season | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 0.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.18 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 4.1 | On target | 4.6 |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 44.6 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 38% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.9 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.41 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; CSKA Sofia in its domestic league; Monaco in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Monaco
- Lamine Camara midfielder · rating 7.41 · 5 apps
- Eric Dier defender · rating 7.32 · 5 apps
- Nazinho defender · rating 7.22 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
- Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.