Moneyball OddsDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball Odds

Gent vs AGF: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Planet Group Arena, Gent · updated 2026-10-09

Gent host AGF in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Planet Group Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Gent favourites at 50%, puts the draw at 29% and expects about 2.2 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Gent50%fair odds 1.99
Draw29%fair odds 3.47
AGF21%fair odds 4.78

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

GentPer match this seasonAGF
6Matches4
0.8Goals scored1.8
0.5Goals conceded2.5
0.36Expected goals (xG)1.32
10.3Shots12.3
4.0On target4.5
52.5Possession %47.0
67%Clean sheets %0%
33%Both teams scored %75%
6.8Corners4.3
1.7Yellow cards2.5
6.56Average rating6.72

Averages per match from Sportmonks; AGF in its domestic league.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

Open Moneyball Odds Follow it live

More Europa Conference League previews

Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.