Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 11
Eredivisie · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · updated 2026-10-25
Ajax welcome AZ Alkmaar to Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam in Eredivisie Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Ajax have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 56% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 20% win rate. AZ Alkmaar have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Ajax are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 23% and AZ Alkmaar at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ajax 1.97, AZ Alkmaar 1.54.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Ajax: form and key numbers
In style Ajax keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.67 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 22.9 a match, 7.9 on target.
- Possession: 62.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
In style AZ Alkmaar keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.7).
- Shots: 17.3 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: season averages side by side
| Ajax | Per match this season | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 2.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.41 |
| 1.25 | xG conceded | 1.07 |
| 22.9 | Shots | 17.3 |
| 7.9 | On target | 6.6 |
| 62.4 | Possession % | 59.4 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 78% | Both teams scored % | 56% |
| 7.1 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 7.05 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Players to watch
Ajax
- Steven Berghuis RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 55 · Crosser, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Tolu Arokodare CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 55 · High shot volume, Dominant in the air (top 11% of his position)
AZ Alkmaar
- Weslley Patati RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 51 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 19% of his position)
- Mexx Meerdink CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 42 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh, 22 · Ajax · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 68
Oscar Gloukh, 22, plays as an attacking midfielder for Ajax in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and shots. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 68
- LW · Winger Natural, 68
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 3.65 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 4.72 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.47 / 90 | 90% |
| Big chances created | 0.91 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Dribbler, High shot volume, Creator.
- What Oscar Gloukh is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Oscar Gloukh's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Ajax should have more of the ball; Ajax work the ball wide and cross; AZ Alkmaar like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.97 for Ajax and 1.54 for AZ Alkmaar - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 68%. Ajax have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Ajax 3-1 AZ Alkmaar
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar betting tips
- Tip 1: Ajax win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.51 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 15.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Eredivisie previews
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- AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente Sunday 25 October 2026
- Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard Saturday 31 October 2026
- SC Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen Saturday 31 October 2026
- PSV vs Willem II Saturday 31 October 2026
- SC Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles Saturday 31 October 2026
- PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 1 November 2026
- Telstar vs FC Utrecht Sunday 1 November 2026
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: questions and answers
When is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 11.
Where is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar played?
At Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, Ajax's home ground.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax are the favourites: Ajax 47%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar 30%. Our prediction is Ajax 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who is the player to watch in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Oscar Gloukh of Ajax: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.