AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 10
Eredivisie · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar · updated 2026-10-25
AZ Alkmaar welcome FC Twente to AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar in Eredivisie Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
AZ Alkmaar have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. FC Twente have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 56% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AZ Alkmaar are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 26% and FC Twente at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.60, FC Twente 1.29.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
In style AZ Alkmaar keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.7).
- Shots: 17.3 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
FC Twente: form and key numbers
In style FC Twente keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created, 0.86 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 20.4 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente: season averages side by side
| AZ Alkmaar | Per match this season | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.24 |
| 1.07 | xG conceded | 0.86 |
| 17.3 | Shots | 20.4 |
| 6.6 | On target | 7.0 |
| 59.4 | Possession % | 58.3 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 8.0 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Players to watch
AZ Alkmaar
- Mexx Meerdink CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 42 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Peer Koopmeiners DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 39 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 4% of his position)
FC Twente
- Daouda Weidmann CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 45 · Creator, Dribbler (top 10% of his position)
- Wout Weghorst CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 45 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 15% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Weslley Patati
Weslley Patati, 23 · AZ Alkmaar · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 51
Weslley Patati, 23, plays as a winger for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances created. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 51
- LW · Winger Competent, 31
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.42 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.44 / 90 | 77% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.56 / 90 | 76% |
| Key passes | 2.60 / 90 | 60% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.08 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume.
- What Weslley Patati is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Weslley Patati's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente prediction
AZ Alkmaar should have more of the ball; AZ Alkmaar like to take players on; FC Twente are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.60 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.29 for FC Twente - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 58%. AZ Alkmaar have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 FC Twente
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente betting tips
- Tip 1: AZ Alkmaar win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.89 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 15.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente: questions and answers
When is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente?
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 10.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente played?
At AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar's home ground.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente?
AZ Alkmaar are the favourites: AZ Alkmaar 44%, draw 26%, FC Twente 30%. Our prediction is AZ Alkmaar 2-1 FC Twente.
Who is the player to watch in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente?
Weslley Patati of AZ Alkmaar: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 51 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.