Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva Prediction and Betting Tips | Russian Premier League Gameweek 14
Russian Premier League · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Akhmat Arena, Groznyi · updated 2026-10-25
Akhmat Grozny welcome Rodina Moskva to Akhmat Arena in Groznyi in Russian Premier League Gameweek 14 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Akhmat Grozny have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate. Rodina Moskva have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Akhmat Grozny are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and Rodina Moskva at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Akhmat Grozny 1.99, Rodina Moskva 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Akhmat Grozny: form and key numbers
In style Akhmat Grozny play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.13 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Rodina Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Rodina Moskva are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 2.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 2.9 on target.
- Possession: 44.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva: season averages side by side
| Akhmat Grozny | Per match this season | Rodina Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.00 |
| 1.13 | xG conceded | 2.12 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 9.8 |
| 4.0 | On target | 2.9 |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 44.4 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 8% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.64 |
Players to watch
Akhmat Grozny
- Mohamed Konaté CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 34 · Dominant in the air, Accurate shooter (top 24% of his position)
- Maksim Samorodov RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 27 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 5% of his position)
Rodina Moskva
- Sergey Volkov GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 28 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 42% of his position)
- Soltmurad Bakaev RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 27 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kalidou Sidibé
Kalidou Sidibé, 27 · Akhmat Grozny · DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 29
Kalidou Sidibé, 27, plays as a defensive midfielder for Akhmat Grozny in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and dribbled past. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 29
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 26
- CM · Central midfielder Accomplished, 16
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dispossessed | 0.00 / 90 | 94% |
| Dribbled past | 0.16 / 90 | 92% |
| Long balls | 3.65 / 90 | 59% |
| Blocked shots | 0.63 / 90 | 55% |
| Duels won | 6.51 / 90 | 46% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Press-resistant, Hard to dribble past.
- What Kalidou Sidibé is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kalidou Sidibé's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva prediction
Akhmat Grozny should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.99 for Akhmat Grozny and 0.97 for Rodina Moskva - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 54%. Akhmat Grozny have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Akhmat Grozny 2-1 Rodina Moskva
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva betting tips
- Tip 1: Akhmat Grozny to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.96 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Russian Premier League previews
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- Dinamo Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Saturday 31 October 2026
- Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar Saturday 31 October 2026
- Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva Sunday 1 November 2026
- Dynamo Makhachkala vs Rostov Sunday 1 November 2026
- Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akron Sunday 1 November 2026
- Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 1 November 2026
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva: questions and answers
When is Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva?
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 14.
Where is Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva played?
At Akhmat Arena, Groznyi, Akhmat Grozny's home ground.
Who will win Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva?
Akhmat Grozny are the favourites: Akhmat Grozny 61%, draw 22%, Rodina Moskva 17%. Our prediction is Akhmat Grozny 2-1 Rodina Moskva.
Who is the player to watch in Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva?
Kalidou Sidibé of Akhmat Grozny: a anchor with a Moneyball Score of 29 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moskva?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.