Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva Prediction and Betting Tips | Russian Premier League Gameweek 13
Russian Premier League · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 16:45 UTC · RZD Arena, Moskva · updated 2026-10-25
Lokomotiv Moskva welcome Spartak Moskva to RZD Arena in Moskva in Russian Premier League Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Lokomotiv Moskva have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. Spartak Moskva have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 58% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Spartak Moskva are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Lokomotiv Moskva at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moskva 1.07, Spartak Moskva 1.66.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lokomotiv Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Lokomotiv Moskva are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.24 a match created, 1.86 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 49.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Spartak Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Spartak Moskva keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.69 a match created, 0.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 16.1 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 62.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva: season averages side by side
| Lokomotiv Moskva | Per match this season | Spartak Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.24 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.69 |
| 1.86 | xG conceded | 0.99 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 16.1 |
| 3.4 | On target | 5.7 |
| 49.6 | Possession % | 62.0 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 42% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.2 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Players to watch
Lokomotiv Moskva
- César Montes CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 37 · Dominant in the air, Hard to dribble past (top 14% of his position)
- Anton Mitryushkin GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 36 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 50% of his position)
Spartak Moskva
- Danil Prutsev CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 32 · Dribbler, Chance creator (top 31% of his position)
- Marquinhos LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 31 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 16% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov, 25 · Lokomotiv Moskva · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 33
Evgeniy Morozov, 25, plays as a centre-back for Lokomotiv Moskva in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 33
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 15
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.60 / 90 | 86% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.48 / 90 | 85% |
| Interceptions | 2.36 / 90 | 72% |
| Tackles | 2.36 / 90 | 57% |
| Blocked shots | 0.94 / 90 | 38% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air.
- What Evgeniy Morozov is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Evgeniy Morozov's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva prediction
Spartak Moskva should have more of the ball, with Lokomotiv Moskva likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Lokomotiv Moskva are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Spartak Moskva press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.07 for Lokomotiv Moskva and 1.66 for Spartak Moskva - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 54%. Spartak Moskva have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lokomotiv Moskva 1-2 Spartak Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva betting tips
- Tip 1: Spartak Moskva win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.74 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva: questions and answers
When is Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva?
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 13.
Where is Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva played?
At RZD Arena, Moskva, Lokomotiv Moskva's home ground.
Who will win Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva?
Spartak Moskva are the favourites: Lokomotiv Moskva 24%, draw 26%, Spartak Moskva 50%. Our prediction is Lokomotiv Moskva 1-2 Spartak Moskva.
Who is the player to watch in Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva?
Evgeniy Morozov of Lokomotiv Moskva: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 33 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.