Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala Prediction and Betting Tips | Russian Premier League Gameweek 12
Russian Premier League · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Gazprom Arena, St. Petersburg · updated 2026-10-25
Zenit welcome Dynamo Makhachkala to Gazprom Arena in St. Petersburg in Russian Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Zenit have played 11 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 73% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 38% win rate. Dynamo Makhachkala have played 11 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Zenit are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 21% and Dynamo Makhachkala at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Zenit 2.19, Dynamo Makhachkala 1.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Zenit: form and key numbers
In style Zenit keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.13 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.9).
- Shots: 15.4 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 58.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Dynamo Makhachkala: form and key numbers
In style Dynamo Makhachkala are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 45.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala: season averages side by side
| Zenit | Per match this season | Dynamo Makhachkala |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.13 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 15.4 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 5.7 | On target | 4.1 |
| 58.5 | Possession % | 45.7 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Zenit
- Aleksandr Sobolev CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 40 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Gustavo Mantuan RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 30 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
Dynamo Makhachkala
- Makhmud Makhamadzhonov LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 22 · Reads the game, Dribbler (top 12% of his position)
- Nikita Glushkov CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 19 · Reads the game, Gets into scoring positions (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Maksim Glushenkov
Maksim Glushenkov, 27 · Zenit · SS · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 48
Maksim Glushenkov, 27, plays as a second striker for Zenit in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in shots and goals. Weakest in expected assists (est.). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 48
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.10 / 90 | 91% |
| Goals | 1.00 / 90 | 84% |
| Fouls won | 2.55 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.44 / 90 | 66% |
| Key passes | 2.22 / 90 | 53% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Clinical finisher, Draws fouls.
⚠ 9 goals from only 3.9 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Maksim Glushenkov is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Maksim Glushenkov's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala prediction
Zenit should have more of the ball, with Dynamo Makhachkala likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Zenit work the ball wide and cross; Dynamo Makhachkala go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.19 for Zenit and 1.12 for Dynamo Makhachkala - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 61%. Zenit have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Zenit 2-1 Dynamo Makhachkala
Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala betting tips
- Tip 1: Zenit to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.32 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Russian Premier League previews
- Rubin Kazan vs Fakel Saturday 31 October 2026
- Dinamo Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Saturday 31 October 2026
- Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar Saturday 31 October 2026
- Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva Sunday 1 November 2026
- Dynamo Makhachkala vs Rostov Sunday 1 November 2026
- Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akron Sunday 1 November 2026
- Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 1 November 2026
- Krylya Sovetov vs Zenit Monday 2 November 2026
Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala: questions and answers
When is Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala played?
At Gazprom Arena, St. Petersburg, Zenit's home ground.
Who will win Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Zenit are the favourites: Zenit 61%, draw 21%, Dynamo Makhachkala 18%. Our prediction is Zenit 2-1 Dynamo Makhachkala.
Who is the player to watch in Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Maksim Glushenkov of Zenit: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 48 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.