Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva Prediction and Betting Tips | Russian Premier League Gameweek 13
Russian Premier League · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Stadion Gazovik, Orenburg · updated 2026-10-25
Orenburg welcome CSKA Moskva to Stadion Gazovik in Orenburg in Russian Premier League Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Orenburg have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate. CSKA Moskva have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 58% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Orenburg 34%, the draw 28%, CSKA Moskva 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Orenburg 1.29, CSKA Moskva 1.37.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Orenburg: form and key numbers
In style Orenburg are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 37.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 3.4 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
CSKA Moskva: form and key numbers
In style CSKA Moskva press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.77 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva: season averages side by side
| Orenburg | Per match this season | CSKA Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.77 |
| 1.40 | xG conceded | 1.35 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 4.4 | On target | 5.8 |
| 37.7 | Possession % | 50.5 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 3.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Orenburg
- Jordhy Thompson RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 42 · Gets into scoring positions, Crosser (top 9% of his position)
- Bogdan Ovsyannikov GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 31 · Long passer, Box defender (top 52% of his position)
CSKA Moskva
- Vladislav Torop GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 32 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 30% of his position)
- Luciano Gondou CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 29 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 22% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov, 28 · CSKA Moskva · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 32
Ivan Oblyakov, 28, plays as a central midfielder for CSKA Moskva in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected goals and key passes. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 32
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 23
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 22
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.38 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 2.38 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 69% |
| Interceptions | 1.53 / 90 | 61% |
| Long balls | 2.80 / 90 | 57% |
Roles he suits
- ★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions.
- What Ivan Oblyakov is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ivan Oblyakov's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva prediction
CSKA Moskva should have more of the ball, with Orenburg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Orenburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces; CSKA Moskva work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.29 for Orenburg and 1.37 for CSKA Moskva - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Orenburg 1-1 CSKA Moskva
Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.65 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva: questions and answers
When is Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva?
Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 10:00 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 13.
Where is Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva played?
At Stadion Gazovik, Orenburg, Orenburg's home ground.
Who will win Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva?
It is close: Orenburg 34%, draw 28%, CSKA Moskva 38%. Our prediction is Orenburg 1-1 CSKA Moskva.
Who is the player to watch in Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva?
Ivan Oblyakov of CSKA Moskva: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 32 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.