Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar Prediction and Betting Tips | Russian Premier League Gameweek 13
Russian Premier League · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Rodina, Khimki · updated 2026-10-25
Rodina Moskva welcome Krasnodar to Stadion Rodina in Khimki in Russian Premier League Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Rodina Moskva have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. Krasnodar have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Krasnodar are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 23% and Rodina Moskva at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Rodina Moskva 1.11, Krasnodar 1.93.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Rodina Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Rodina Moskva are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 2.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 2.9 on target.
- Possession: 44.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
Krasnodar: form and key numbers
In style Krasnodar keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.21 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.1).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 58.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar: season averages side by side
| Rodina Moskva | Per match this season | Krasnodar |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 2.12 | xG conceded | 1.21 |
| 9.8 | Shots | 14.9 |
| 2.9 | On target | 5.4 |
| 44.4 | Possession % | 58.6 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.64 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Rodina Moskva
- Sergey Volkov GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 28 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 42% of his position)
- Soltmurad Bakaev RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 27 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 17% of his position)
Krasnodar
- Juan Manuel Boselli SS · Dribbling forward · Moneyball Score 35 · Clinical finisher, Creator (top 28% of his position)
- Jhon Córdoba CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 25 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Duel winner (top 21% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Douglas Augusto
Douglas Augusto, 29 · Krasnodar · CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 29
Douglas Augusto, 29, plays as a central midfielder for Krasnodar in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in long balls and interceptions. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 29
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 25
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Long balls | 3.57 / 90 | 73% |
| Interceptions | 1.53 / 90 | 58% |
| Dispossessed | 0.51 / 90 | 47% |
| Tackles | 2.68 / 90 | 43% |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 39% |
Roles he suits
- ★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- What Douglas Augusto is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Douglas Augusto's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar prediction
Krasnodar should have more of the ball, with Rodina Moskva likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.11 for Rodina Moskva and 1.93 for Krasnodar - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 58%. Krasnodar have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Rodina Moskva 1-2 Krasnodar
Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar betting tips
- Tip 1: Krasnodar to win 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.04 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Russian Premier League previews
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- Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva Sunday 1 November 2026
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- Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 1 November 2026
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Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar: questions and answers
When is Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar?
Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 13.
Where is Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar played?
At Stadion Rodina, Khimki, Rodina Moskva's home ground.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar?
Krasnodar are the favourites: Rodina Moskva 21%, draw 23%, Krasnodar 56%. Our prediction is Rodina Moskva 1-2 Krasnodar.
Who is the player to watch in Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar?
Douglas Augusto of Krasnodar: a ball-winning midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 29 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.