Atalanta vs Pafos FC: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo · updated 2026-10-09
Atalanta host Pafos FC in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Gewiss Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Atalanta slight favourites at 38%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 28% and expects about 2.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atalanta 1.32, Pafos FC 1.25.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano, 26 · Atalanta · DMF · Ball-winner
Moneyball Scout picks Gianluca Gaetano as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 48 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 49, defensive 44).
- Interceptions: 1.88 per 90 minutes, better than 75% of defensive midfielders
- Pass accuracy: 90%, better than 63% of defensive midfielders
- Tackles: 2.19 per 90 minutes, better than 60% of defensive midfielders
Pafos FC score 1.8 goals a match this season from 0.49 expected: stopping them runs through Gianluca Gaetano.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Atalanta | Per match this season | Pafos FC |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.49 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | – |
| 11.8 | Shots | 15.8 |
| 3.4 | On target | 4.5 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 51.3 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.59 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Atalanta in its domestic league; Pafos FC in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi goalkeeper · rating 7.36 · 5 apps
- Lazar Samardžić midfielder · rating 6.97 · 5 apps
- Charles De Ketelaere forward · rating 6.88 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.