Atalanta vs Parma Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 10
Serie A · Monday 2 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo · updated 2026-10-19
Atalanta welcome Parma to Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo in Serie A Gameweek 10 action on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Atalanta have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Parma have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atalanta are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Parma at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atalanta 1.61, Parma 1.05.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
In style Atalanta are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Parma: form and key numbers
In style Parma are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.75 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 8.3 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 42.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Atalanta vs Parma: season averages side by side
| Atalanta | Per match this season | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.75 |
| 1.99 | xG conceded | 1.70 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 8.3 |
| 4.6 | On target | 2.7 |
| 45.7 | Possession % | 42.5 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.4 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 0.9 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.66 |
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 8% of his position)
- Raoul Bellanova RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Creator, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
Parma
- Edoardo Corvi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 58 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 20% of his position)
- Mariano Troilo CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 53 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe, 23 · Atalanta · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61
Jonathan Rowe, 23, plays as a winger for Atalanta in Serie A. Strongest for his role in fouls won and big chances created. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 57
- SS · Second striker Competent, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.20 / 90 | 95% |
| Big chances created | 0.58 / 90 | 83% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 76% |
| Shots | 2.62 / 90 | 67% |
| Key passes | 1.75 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Big-chance creator.
- What Jonathan Rowe is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jonathan Rowe's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atalanta vs Parma prediction
Atalanta should have more of the ball; Parma go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.61 for Atalanta and 1.05 for Parma - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 53%. Atalanta have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atalanta 1-0 Parma
Atalanta vs Parma betting tips
- Tip 1: Atalanta win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.66 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
Atalanta vs Parma: questions and answers
When is Atalanta vs Parma?
Atalanta vs Parma is on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 10.
Where is Atalanta vs Parma played?
At Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Atalanta's home ground.
Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?
Atalanta are the favourites: Atalanta 50%, draw 26%, Parma 24%. Our prediction is Atalanta 1-0 Parma.
Who is the player to watch in Atalanta vs Parma?
Jonathan Rowe of Atalanta: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Parma?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.