Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · San Mamés Barria, Bilbao · updated 2026-10-18
Athletic Club welcome Real Sociedad to San Mamés Barria in Bilbao in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Athletic Club have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Real Sociedad have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Athletic Club are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 26% and Real Sociedad at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.68, Real Sociedad 1.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Athletic Club: form and key numbers
In style Athletic Club keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.45 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 57% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
In style Real Sociedad play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.17 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: season averages side by side
| Athletic Club | Per match this season | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.45 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.17 |
| 1.27 | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 14.7 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 4.3 | On target | 5.0 |
| 53.9 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 57% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 29% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Athletic Club
- Cem Gürsoy CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 63 · Dribbler, Long passer (top 13% of his position)
- Unai Simón GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 35% of his position)
Real Sociedad
- Sergio Gómez LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Chance creator, Secure passer (top 12% of his position)
- Carlos Soler CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche, 36 · Athletic Club · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 69
Yuri Berchiche, 36, plays as a full-back for Athletic Club in La Liga. Strongest for his role in passes and pass accuracy. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 69
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 67.93 / 90 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 95% |
| Key passes | 1.47 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.17 / 90 | 88% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.74 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Secure passer, Chance creator.
- What Yuri Berchiche is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Yuri Berchiche's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction
Athletic Club should have more of the ball, with Real Sociedad likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Athletic Club work the ball wide and cross; Real Sociedad like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.68 for Athletic Club and 1.03 for Real Sociedad - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 53%. Athletic Club have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Athletic Club 1-0 Real Sociedad
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad betting tips
- Tip 1: Athletic Club win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 13.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
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- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Athletic Club vs Getafe Sunday 25 October 2026
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Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: questions and answers
When is Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad played?
At San Mamés Barria, Bilbao, Athletic Club's home ground.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club are the favourites: Athletic Club 52%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 23%. Our prediction is Athletic Club 1-0 Real Sociedad.
Who is the player to watch in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Yuri Berchiche of Athletic Club: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
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