AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 12
Eredivisie · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 15:45 UTC · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar · updated 2026-10-25
AZ Alkmaar welcome FC Groningen to AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar in Eredivisie Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 15:45 UTC.
AZ Alkmaar have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. FC Groningen have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 2.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 19% and FC Groningen at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.54, FC Groningen 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 73% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
In style AZ Alkmaar keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.7).
- Shots: 17.3 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
FC Groningen: form and key numbers
In style FC Groningen play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 2.02 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.0).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 48.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 90% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen: season averages side by side
| AZ Alkmaar | Per match this season | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 10 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 2.4 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.60 |
| 1.07 | xG conceded | 2.02 |
| 17.3 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 6.6 | On target | 5.5 |
| 59.4 | Possession % | 48.9 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 10% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 90% |
| 8.0 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
AZ Alkmaar
- Mexx Meerdink CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 42 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Peer Koopmeiners DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 39 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 4% of his position)
FC Groningen
- David van der Werff RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Creator, Chance creator (top 17% of his position)
- Márk Csinger CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 43 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Weslley Patati
Weslley Patati, 23 · AZ Alkmaar · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 51
Weslley Patati, 23, plays as a winger for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances created. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 51
- LW · Winger Competent, 31
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.42 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.44 / 90 | 77% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.56 / 90 | 76% |
| Key passes | 2.60 / 90 | 60% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.08 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume.
- What Weslley Patati is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Weslley Patati's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen prediction
AZ Alkmaar should have more of the ball, with FC Groningen likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; AZ Alkmaar like to take players on; FC Groningen go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals - 2.54 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.26 for FC Groningen - with over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 66%. AZ Alkmaar have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 FC Groningen
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen betting tips
- Tip 1: AZ Alkmaar to win 65% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 53% by the model, 3.80 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- PSV vs Willem II Saturday 31 October 2026
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AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen: questions and answers
When is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 15:45 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 12.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen played?
At AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar's home ground.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar are the favourites: AZ Alkmaar 65%, draw 19%, FC Groningen 17%. Our prediction is AZ Alkmaar 3-1 FC Groningen.
Who is the player to watch in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?
Weslley Patati of AZ Alkmaar: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 51 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.