Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen · updated 2026-10-22
Bayer 04 Leverkusen welcome Olympique Marseille to BayArena in Leverkusen in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Olympique Marseille have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 18% and Olympique Marseille at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.70, Olympique Marseille 1.59.
- Over 2.5 goals: 80% · both teams to score: 75%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.26 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.4).
- Shots: 19.7 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 57.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 1.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 57.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille: season averages side by side
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Per match this season | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.7 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.95 |
| 19.7 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 6.2 | On target | 4.9 |
| 57.8 | Possession % | 57.6 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 7.3 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 68 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 9% of his position)
Olympique Marseille
- Timothy Weah RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 10% of his position)
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 71
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 4.77 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.83 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.45 / 90 | 74% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen should have more of the ball; Bayer 04 Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.3 goals - 2.70 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.59 for Olympique Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams scoring at 75%. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 Olympique Marseille
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 80% by the model, 4.29 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 75% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille: questions and answers
When is Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille played?
At BayArena, Leverkusen, Bayer 04 Leverkusen's home ground.
Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are the favourites: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 61%, draw 18%, Olympique Marseille 21%. Our prediction is Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 Olympique Marseille.
Who is the player to watch in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 80%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.