Birmingham City vs Millwall Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 14
Championship · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham · updated 2026-10-25
Birmingham City welcome Millwall to St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham in Championship Gameweek 14 action on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Birmingham City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 42% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 40% win rate. Millwall have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Birmingham City are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 24% and Millwall at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Birmingham City 1.86, Millwall 1.29.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Birmingham City: form and key numbers
In style Birmingham City play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Millwall: form and key numbers
In style Millwall press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 48.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Birmingham City vs Millwall: season averages side by side
| Birmingham City | Per match this season | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.85 |
| 1.36 | xG conceded | 1.36 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 4.6 | On target | 3.9 |
| 50.7 | Possession % | 48.1 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Birmingham City
- Liam Millar LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 12% of his position)
- Christoph Klarer CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 46 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
Millwall
- Josh Coburn CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 53 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 5% of his position)
- Caleb Taylor CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 41 · Reads the game, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann, 29 · Birmingham City · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 47
Phil Neumann, 29, plays as a centre-back for Birmingham City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in interceptions and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 47
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.08 / 90 | 79% |
| Duels won | 6.75 / 90 | 79% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.42 / 90 | 77% |
| Clearances | 7.50 / 90 | 66% |
| Dribbled past | 0.25 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- What Phil Neumann is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phil Neumann's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Birmingham City vs Millwall prediction
Birmingham City should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.86 for Birmingham City and 1.29 for Millwall - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 62%. Birmingham City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Birmingham City 2-1 Millwall
Birmingham City vs Millwall betting tips
- Tip 1: Birmingham City win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.15 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Birmingham City vs Millwall: questions and answers
When is Birmingham City vs Millwall?
Birmingham City vs Millwall is on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 14.
Where is Birmingham City vs Millwall played?
At St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham, Birmingham City's home ground.
Who will win Birmingham City vs Millwall?
Birmingham City are the favourites: Birmingham City 50%, draw 24%, Millwall 26%. Our prediction is Birmingham City 2-1 Millwall.
Who is the player to watch in Birmingham City vs Millwall?
Phil Neumann of Birmingham City: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham City vs Millwall?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.