Lincoln City vs Birmingham City Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 13
Championship · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 12:30 UTC · LNER Stadium, Lincoln · updated 2026-10-25
Lincoln City welcome Birmingham City to LNER Stadium in Lincoln in Championship Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Lincoln City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 25% win rate. Birmingham City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 42% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Birmingham City are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Lincoln City at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lincoln City 1.26, Birmingham City 1.63.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lincoln City: form and key numbers
In style Lincoln City are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.8).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 35.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Birmingham City: form and key numbers
In style Birmingham City play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Lincoln City vs Birmingham City: season averages side by side
| Lincoln City | Per match this season | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.60 | xG conceded | 1.36 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 3.1 | On target | 4.6 |
| 35.7 | Possession % | 50.7 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Lincoln City
- Callum Elder LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 42 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 19% of his position)
- Yunus Konak DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 33 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Birmingham City
- Liam Millar LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 12% of his position)
- Christoph Klarer CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 46 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann, 29 · Birmingham City · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 47
Phil Neumann, 29, plays as a centre-back for Birmingham City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in interceptions and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 47
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.08 / 90 | 79% |
| Duels won | 6.75 / 90 | 79% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.42 / 90 | 77% |
| Clearances | 7.50 / 90 | 66% |
| Dribbled past | 0.25 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- What Phil Neumann is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phil Neumann's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lincoln City vs Birmingham City prediction
Birmingham City should have more of the ball, with Lincoln City likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.26 for Lincoln City and 1.63 for Birmingham City - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 58%. Birmingham City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lincoln City 1-2 Birmingham City
Lincoln City vs Birmingham City betting tips
- Tip 1: Birmingham City win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.89 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lincoln City vs Birmingham City: questions and answers
When is Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
Lincoln City vs Birmingham City is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 13.
Where is Lincoln City vs Birmingham City played?
At LNER Stadium, Lincoln, Lincoln City's home ground.
Who will win Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
Birmingham City are the favourites: Lincoln City 29%, draw 26%, Birmingham City 45%. Our prediction is Lincoln City 1-2 Birmingham City.
Who is the player to watch in Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
Phil Neumann of Birmingham City: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
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