Birmingham City vs Swansea City Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 15
Championship · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham · updated 2026-10-25
Birmingham City welcome Swansea City to St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham in Championship Gameweek 15 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Birmingham City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 42% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 40% win rate. Swansea City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 58% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 57% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Birmingham City are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 26% and Swansea City at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Birmingham City 1.60, Swansea City 1.10.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Birmingham City: form and key numbers
In style Birmingham City play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Swansea City: form and key numbers
In style Swansea City keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.39 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 42% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Birmingham City vs Swansea City: season averages side by side
| Birmingham City | Per match this season | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 1.36 | xG conceded | 1.39 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 4.6 | On target | 4.3 |
| 50.7 | Possession % | 59.4 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 42% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 42% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Birmingham City
- Liam Millar LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 12% of his position)
- Christoph Klarer CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 46 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
Swansea City
- Josh Key RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 39 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 23% of his position)
- Josh Tymon LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 39 · Crosser, Hard to dribble past (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann, 29 · Birmingham City · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 47
Phil Neumann, 29, plays as a centre-back for Birmingham City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in interceptions and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 47
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.08 / 90 | 79% |
| Duels won | 6.75 / 90 | 79% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.42 / 90 | 77% |
| Clearances | 7.50 / 90 | 66% |
| Dribbled past | 0.25 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- What Phil Neumann is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phil Neumann's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Birmingham City vs Swansea City prediction
Swansea City should have more of the ball, with Birmingham City likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Birmingham City are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.60 for Birmingham City and 1.10 for Swansea City - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 54%. Birmingham City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Birmingham City 2-1 Swansea City
Birmingham City vs Swansea City betting tips
- Tip 1: Birmingham City win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.70 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Championship previews
- Sheffield United vs Wrexham Friday 30 October 2026
- Stoke City vs Preston North End Saturday 31 October 2026
- Norwich City vs Watford Saturday 31 October 2026
- Lincoln City vs Birmingham City Saturday 31 October 2026
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff City Saturday 31 October 2026
- West Ham United vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 31 October 2026
- Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers Saturday 31 October 2026
- Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 31 October 2026
Birmingham City vs Swansea City: questions and answers
When is Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
Birmingham City vs Swansea City is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 15.
Where is Birmingham City vs Swansea City played?
At St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham, Birmingham City's home ground.
Who will win Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
Birmingham City are the favourites: Birmingham City 48%, draw 26%, Swansea City 25%. Our prediction is Birmingham City 2-1 Swansea City.
Who is the player to watch in Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
Phil Neumann of Birmingham City: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.