Brest vs Nice Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Saturday 24 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Brest welcome Nice to Stade Francis-Le Ble in Brest in Ligue 1 action on Saturday 24 October 2026.
Brest have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Nice have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Brest are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 27% and Nice at 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Brest -0.25 at 1.95, Nice at 1.95. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.85, under 2.03, which gives over 52%.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.97 a match created, 1.30 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 45.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Nice: form and key numbers
In style Nice keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Brest vs Nice: season averages side by side
| Brest | Per match | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| 1.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 1.30 | xG conceded | 1.36 |
| 1.86 | Goals | 0.83 |
| 17.6 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 5.7 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 53.7 | Pressure share % | 55.3 |
| 17.6 | Tackles | 15.8 |
| 14.3 | Fouls | 8.7 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Brest vs Nice: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Brest have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Brest 6, Nice 10 - 4.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Nice 2-2 Brest (February 1st 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Brest won 1, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Nice | 2 – 2 | Brest |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Brest | 4 – 1 | Nice |
| 17 May 2025 | Nice | 6 – 0 | Brest |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Brest | 0 – 1 | Nice |
Players to watch
Brest
- Raphaël Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Hugo Magnetti CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 61 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
Nice
- Xavier Mandza DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Ball circulator, Disciplined (top 9% of his position)
- Jonathan Clauss RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko, 24 · Brest · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 68
Bradley Locko, 24, plays as a full-back for Brest in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and successful dribbles. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 68
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 0.86 / 90 | 89% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.00 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 6.16 / 90 | 84% |
| Interceptions | 1.58 / 90 | 79% |
| Tackles | 2.58 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Dribbler, Duel winner.
- What Bradley Locko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bradley Locko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Brest vs Nice prediction
Nice should have more of the ball, with Brest likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Nice press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.77 for Brest and 0.99 for Nice - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 53%. Brest have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Brest 1-0 Nice
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Brest vs Nice betting tips
- Tip 1: Brest win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.76 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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- Toulouse vs Troyes Saturday 24 October 2026
Brest vs Nice: questions and answers
When is Brest vs Nice?
Brest vs Nice is on Saturday 24 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Brest vs Nice played?
At Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest, Brest's home ground.
Who will win Brest vs Nice?
Brest are the favourites: Brest 43%, draw 27%, Nice 31%. Our prediction is Brest 1-0 Nice.
Who is the player to watch in Brest vs Nice?
Bradley Locko of Brest: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Brest vs Nice?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.