Brighton & Hove Albion vs Kauno Žalgiris: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer · updated 2026-10-09
Brighton & Hove Albion host Kauno Žalgiris in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at The American Express Community Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Brighton & Hove Albion clear favourites at 71%, puts the draw at 17% and expects about 3.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion 2.67, Kauno Žalgiris 1.05.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper, 25 · Brighton & Hove Albion · LWB · Attacking wing-back
Moneyball Scout picks Maxim De Cuyper as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 73, defensive 32).
- Expected goals: 0.25 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of wing-backs
- Key passes: 2.54 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wing-backs
- Accurate crosses: 1.69 per 90 minutes, better than 81% of wing-backs
Kauno Žalgiris concede 1.7 goals a match this season, more than the league's average: the space a attacking wing-back like Maxim De Cuyper lives on.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Per match this season | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 6 |
| 3.2 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 2.18 | Expected goals (xG) | – |
| 1.74 | xG conceded | – |
| 19.0 | Shots | 7.5 |
| 5.8 | On target | 4.2 |
| 64.6 | Possession % | 50.8 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 7.03 | Average rating | 6.34 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Brighton & Hove Albion in its domestic league; Kauno Žalgiris in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Pascal Groß midfielder · rating 7.86 · 5 apps
- Maxim De Cuyper midfielder · rating 7.28 · 5 apps
- Malick Yalcouyé midfielder · rating 7.24 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.