Cardiff City vs Burnley Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 15
Championship · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff · updated 2026-10-25
Cardiff City welcome Burnley to Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff in Championship Gameweek 15 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Cardiff City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate. Burnley have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 8% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Cardiff City are narrow favourites at 60%, with the draw at 20% and Burnley at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Cardiff City 2.33, Burnley 1.31.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Cardiff City: form and key numbers
In style Cardiff City keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.04 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.4).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 60.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Burnley: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.38 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 92% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Cardiff City vs Burnley: season averages side by side
| Cardiff City | Per match this season | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 2.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.38 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.70 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 5.9 | On target | 4.1 |
| 60.8 | Possession % | 49.1 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 8% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 92% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Cardiff City
- Chris Willock LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 50 · Crosser, Creator (top 14% of his position)
- Yousef Salech CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 47 · Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots (top 14% of his position)
Burnley
- Marcus Edwards RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 35% of his position)
- Jacob Bruun Larsen LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Big-chance creator, Press-resistant (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alex Robertson
Alex Robertson, 23 · Cardiff City · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 52
Alex Robertson, 23, plays as a central midfielder for Cardiff City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in interceptions and dispossessed. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 52
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 50
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 1.85 / 90 | 86% |
| Dispossessed | 0.34 / 90 | 85% |
| Long balls | 3.70 / 90 | 83% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 78% |
| Passes | 68.62 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Press-resistant, Long passer.
- What Alex Robertson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alex Robertson's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Cardiff City vs Burnley prediction
Cardiff City should have more of the ball, with Burnley likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Cardiff City are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.33 for Cardiff City and 1.31 for Burnley - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 66%. Cardiff City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Cardiff City 3-1 Burnley
Cardiff City vs Burnley betting tips
- Tip 1: Cardiff City to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.64 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Cardiff City vs Burnley: questions and answers
When is Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Cardiff City vs Burnley is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 15.
Where is Cardiff City vs Burnley played?
At Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, Cardiff City's home ground.
Who will win Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Cardiff City are the favourites: Cardiff City 60%, draw 20%, Burnley 20%. Our prediction is Cardiff City 3-1 Burnley.
Who is the player to watch in Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Alex Robertson of Cardiff City: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 52 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.