Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo · updated 2026-10-23
Celta de Vigo welcome Union Saint-Gilloise to Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Celta de Vigo have played 3 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Union Saint-Gilloise have played 3 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Union Saint-Gilloise are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 25% and Celta de Vigo at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celta de Vigo 0.90, Union Saint-Gilloise 1.73.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Celta de Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Union Saint-Gilloise: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.65 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 22.3 a match, 11.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.19.
Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise: season averages side by side
| Celta de Vigo | Per match this season | Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 2.7 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 0.3 |
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.65 |
| 16.7 | Shots | 22.3 |
| 3.7 | On target | 11.0 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 48.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 6.3 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 7.19 |
Players to watch
Celta de Vigo
- Ionuț Radu GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
- Javi Rueda RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Dribbler, Chance creator (top 20% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcos Alonso
Marcos Alonso, 35 · Celta de Vigo · CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 59
Marcos Alonso, 35, plays as a centre-back for Celta de Vigo in La Liga. Strongest for his role in passes and long balls. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 67
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 83.00 / 90 | 95% |
| Long balls | 4.90 / 90 | 95% |
| Interceptions | 1.75 / 90 | 82% |
| Tackles | 1.93 / 90 | 74% |
| Clearances | 5.78 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Long passer, Reads the game.
- What Marcos Alonso is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcos Alonso's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 0.90 for Celta de Vigo and 1.73 for Union Saint-Gilloise - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 50%. Union Saint-Gilloise have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Celta de Vigo 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise
Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise betting tips
- Tip 1: Union Saint-Gilloise to win 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.63 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise: questions and answers
When is Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise played?
At Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo, Celta de Vigo's home ground.
Who will win Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
Union Saint-Gilloise are the favourites: Celta de Vigo 19%, draw 25%, Union Saint-Gilloise 56%. Our prediction is Celta de Vigo 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise.
Who is the player to watch in Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
Marcos Alonso of Celta de Vigo: a ball-playing centre-back with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.