Chapecoense vs Mirassol Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 34
Brasileirão · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapecó · updated 2026-10-25
Chapecoense welcome Mirassol to Arena Condá in Chapecó in Brasileirão Gameweek 34 action on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Chapecoense have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 75% win rate. Mirassol have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 28% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 22% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Chapecoense 35%, the draw 25%, Mirassol 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.45, Mirassol 1.58.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Chapecoense: form and key numbers
In style Chapecoense are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 42.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Mirassol: form and key numbers
In style Mirassol cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.85 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.0).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 66% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Chapecoense vs Mirassol: season averages side by side
| Chapecoense | Per match this season | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| 1.75 | xG conceded | 1.85 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 3.5 | On target | 4.5 |
| 42.3 | Possession % | 49.9 |
| 6% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 66% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Chapecoense
- Rafael Santos GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
- Ênio LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 57 · Draws fouls, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
Mirassol
- Gabriel CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 5% of his position)
- Nathan Fogaça CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · Gets into scoring positions, Accurate shooter (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bruno Pacheco
Bruno Pacheco, 34 · Chapecoense · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 58
Bruno Pacheco, 34, plays as a full-back for Chapecoense in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and accurate crosses. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 58
- LWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 0.99 / 90 | 94% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.83 / 90 | 92% |
| Duels won | 5.90 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.12 / 90 | 76% |
| Key passes | 0.94 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Crosser, Duel winner.
- What Bruno Pacheco is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bruno Pacheco's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chapecoense vs Mirassol prediction
Mirassol should have more of the ball, with Chapecoense likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.45 for Chapecoense and 1.58 for Mirassol - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Chapecoense 1-1 Mirassol
Chapecoense vs Mirassol betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.03 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Chapecoense vs Mirassol: questions and answers
When is Chapecoense vs Mirassol?
Chapecoense vs Mirassol is on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 34.
Where is Chapecoense vs Mirassol played?
At Arena Condá, Chapecó, Chapecoense's home ground.
Who will win Chapecoense vs Mirassol?
It is close: Chapecoense 35%, draw 25%, Mirassol 40%. Our prediction is Chapecoense 1-1 Mirassol.
Who is the player to watch in Chapecoense vs Mirassol?
Bruno Pacheco of Chapecoense: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense vs Mirassol?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.