Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 34
Brasileirão · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-10-25
Botafogo welcome Atlético Mineiro to Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 34 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Botafogo have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 31% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 16 matches, with a 60% win rate. Atlético Mineiro have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 45% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 15 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Botafogo 36%, the draw 28%, Atlético Mineiro 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Botafogo 1.30, Atlético Mineiro 1.31.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Botafogo: form and key numbers
In style Botafogo play long and direct, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.26 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 66% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Atlético Mineiro: form and key numbers
In style Atlético Mineiro play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro: season averages side by side
| Botafogo | Per match this season | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 1.26 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 14.1 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 5.2 | On target | 4.9 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 49.2 |
| 16% | Clean sheets % | 26% |
| 66% | Both teams scored % | 48% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Botafogo
- Hakim Ziyech RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 67 · Press-resistant, Crosser (top 4% of his position)
- Raul GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 4% of his position)
Atlético Mineiro
- Alexsander DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
- Dudu LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 57 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tomás Cuello
Tomás Cuello, 26 · Atlético Mineiro · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61
Tomás Cuello, 26, plays as a winger for Atlético Mineiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- RW · Winger Natural, 61
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.43 / 90 | 76% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.25 / 90 | 73% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.92 / 90 | 67% |
| Shots | 2.74 / 90 | 66% |
| Fouls won | 1.88 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
- What Tomás Cuello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tomás Cuello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro prediction
Atlético Mineiro should have more of the ball; Botafogo work the ball wide and cross; Atlético Mineiro go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.30 for Botafogo and 1.31 for Atlético Mineiro - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Botafogo 1-1 Atlético Mineiro
Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.61 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 13.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro: questions and answers
When is Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 34.
Where is Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro played?
At Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Botafogo's home ground.
Who will win Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?
It is close: Botafogo 36%, draw 28%, Atlético Mineiro 36%. Our prediction is Botafogo 1-1 Atlético Mineiro.
Who is the player to watch in Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Tomás Cuello of Atlético Mineiro: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.