Flamengo vs Grêmio Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 34
Brasileirão · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-10-25
Flamengo welcome Grêmio to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 34 action on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Flamengo have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 65% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 55% win rate. Grêmio have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 23% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Flamengo are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 17% and Grêmio at 8%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Flamengo 2.43, Grêmio 0.70.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 3–0 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Flamengo: form and key numbers
In style Flamengo keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.3).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Grêmio: form and key numbers
In style Grêmio play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Flamengo vs Grêmio: season averages side by side
| Flamengo | Per match this season | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.73 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 0.96 | xG conceded | 1.94 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 5.7 | On target | 3.7 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 49.5 |
| 45% | Clean sheets % | 19% |
| 48% | Both teams scored % | 61% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Flamengo
- Gonzalo Plata RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 62 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 17% of his position)
- Samuel Lino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Grêmio
Scouting spotlight: Jorge Carrascal
Jorge Carrascal, 28 · Flamengo · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 73
Jorge Carrascal, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Flamengo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 73
- RW · Winger Natural, 73
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 3.26 / 90 | 92% |
| Big chances created | 0.77 / 90 | 92% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.73 / 90 | 85% |
| Fouls won | 2.05 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Jorge Carrascal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jorge Carrascal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Flamengo vs Grêmio prediction
Flamengo should have more of the ball, with Grêmio likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Flamengo press high to win the ball back; Grêmio go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.43 for Flamengo and 0.70 for Grêmio - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 47%. Flamengo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Flamengo 3-0 Grêmio
Flamengo vs Grêmio betting tips
- Tip 1: Flamengo to win 75% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.13 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 16.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Flamengo vs Grêmio: questions and answers
When is Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Flamengo vs Grêmio is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 34.
Where is Flamengo vs Grêmio played?
At Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro, Flamengo's home ground.
Who will win Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Flamengo are the favourites: Flamengo 75%, draw 17%, Grêmio 8%. Our prediction is Flamengo 3-0 Grêmio.
Who is the player to watch in Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Jorge Carrascal of Flamengo: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.