Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 34
Brasileirão · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena de Baixada, Curitiba · updated 2026-10-25
Athletico PR welcome Vasco da Gama to Arena de Baixada in Curitiba in Brasileirão Gameweek 34 action on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Athletico PR have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 47% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 16 matches, with a 60% win rate. Vasco da Gama have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 32% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Athletico PR 40%, the draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Athletico PR 1.51, Vasco da Gama 1.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Athletico PR: form and key numbers
In style Athletico PR play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Vasco da Gama: form and key numbers
In style Vasco da Gama keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: -15.1).
- Shots: 17.9 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 54.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama: season averages side by side
| Athletico PR | Per match this season | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.07 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 17.9 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.4 |
| 47.0 | Possession % | 54.6 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 59% | Both teams scored % | 61% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Players to watch
Athletico PR
- Kerwin Vargas RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Lucas Esquivel LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
Vasco da Gama
- Santiago Sosa DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
- Alan Lescano AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 62 · Creator, Chance creator (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Cuiabano
Cuiabano, 23 · Vasco da Gama · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 66
Cuiabano, 23, plays as a wing-back for Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in tackles and interceptions. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 66
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 3.83 / 90 | 99% |
| Interceptions | 2.06 / 90 | 99% |
| Duels won | 8.55 / 90 | 99% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.30 / 90 | 70% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.30 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Ball-winner, Reads the game, Duel winner.
- What Cuiabano is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama prediction
Vasco da Gama should have more of the ball, with Athletico PR likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Athletico PR go long and direct; Vasco da Gama are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.51 for Athletico PR and 1.36 for Vasco da Gama - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Athletico PR 1-1 Vasco da Gama
Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.87 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama: questions and answers
When is Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama?
Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 34.
Where is Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama played?
At Arena de Baixada, Curitiba, Athletico PR's home ground.
Who will win Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama?
It is close: Athletico PR 40%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 34%. Our prediction is Athletico PR 1-1 Vasco da Gama.
Who is the player to watch in Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama?
Cuiabano of Vasco da Gama: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.