São Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 34
Brasileirão · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo · updated 2026-10-25
São Paulo welcome Corinthians to Estádio Nicolau Alayon in São Paulo in Brasileirão Gameweek 34 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
São Paulo have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 83% win rate. Corinthians have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 16 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, São Paulo are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 29% and Corinthians at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: São Paulo 1.40, Corinthians 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
São Paulo: form and key numbers
In style São Paulo keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -10.3).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (86% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Corinthians: form and key numbers
In style Corinthians keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.98 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 54.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 31% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
São Paulo vs Corinthians: season averages side by side
| São Paulo | Per match this season | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.98 |
| 1.36 | xG conceded | 1.24 |
| 13.5 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.1 | On target | 3.9 |
| 53.3 | Possession % | 54.1 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 31% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 59% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
São Paulo
- Ferreirinha LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 4% of his position)
- Gustavo Santana CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 18% of his position)
Corinthians
- André Ramalho CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 19% of his position)
- Fabrizio Angileri LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 21% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcos Antônio
Marcos Antônio, 26 · São Paulo · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 62
Marcos Antônio, 26, plays as a central midfielder for São Paulo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and passes. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 62
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 53
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 46
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 94% |
| Passes | 65.12 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 84% |
| Long balls | 3.01 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 1.72 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Ball circulator, Creator.
- What Marcos Antônio is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcos Antônio's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
São Paulo vs Corinthians prediction
Corinthians should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.40 for São Paulo and 0.90 for Corinthians - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 46%. São Paulo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: São Paulo 2-0 Corinthians
São Paulo vs Corinthians betting tips
- Tip 1: São Paulo win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 2.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
São Paulo vs Corinthians: questions and answers
When is São Paulo vs Corinthians?
São Paulo vs Corinthians is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 34.
Where is São Paulo vs Corinthians played?
At Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo, São Paulo's home ground.
Who will win São Paulo vs Corinthians?
São Paulo are the favourites: São Paulo 48%, draw 29%, Corinthians 24%. Our prediction is São Paulo 2-0 Corinthians.
Who is the player to watch in São Paulo vs Corinthians?
Marcos Antônio of São Paulo: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in São Paulo vs Corinthians?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.