Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 15
Championship · Friday 6 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Pride Park Stadium, Derby · updated 2026-10-25
Derby County welcome Bolton Wanderers to Pride Park Stadium in Derby in Championship Gameweek 15 action on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Derby County have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 8% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. Bolton Wanderers have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Derby County 37%, the draw 25%, Bolton Wanderers 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Derby County 1.52, Bolton Wanderers 1.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Derby County: form and key numbers
In style Derby County play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.97 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Bolton Wanderers: form and key numbers
In style Bolton Wanderers play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 2.00 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers: season averages side by side
| Derby County | Per match this season | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.97 | xG conceded | 2.00 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 3.8 | On target | 4.7 |
| 48.5 | Possession % | 49.3 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Derby County
- Joe Ward RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Press-resistant (top 7% of his position)
- Jacob Widell Zetterström GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 44 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 33% of his position)
Bolton Wanderers
- Rúben Rodrigues AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 53 · Chance creator, Draws fouls (top 14% of his position)
- Gavin Bazunu GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 49 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Chris Forino
Chris Forino, 26 · Bolton Wanderers · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 56
Chris Forino, 26, plays as a centre-back for Bolton Wanderers in the Championship. Strongest for his role in fouls committed and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 56
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 44
- LB · Full-back Competent, 27
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls committed | 0.33 / 90 | 85% |
| Duels won | 7.67 / 90 | 83% |
| Tackles | 2.67 / 90 | 79% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.67 / 90 | 77% |
| Interceptions | 2.17 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Disciplined, Duel winner.
- What Chris Forino is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Chris Forino's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers prediction
Bolton Wanderers should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.52 for Derby County and 1.52 for Bolton Wanderers - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 62%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Derby County 1-1 Bolton Wanderers
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.04 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers: questions and answers
When is Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers is on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 15.
Where is Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers played?
At Pride Park Stadium, Derby, Derby County's home ground.
Who will win Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?
It is close: Derby County 37%, draw 25%, Bolton Wanderers 37%. Our prediction is Derby County 1-1 Bolton Wanderers.
Who is the player to watch in Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?
Chris Forino of Bolton Wanderers: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
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