Derby County vs Norwich City Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 14
Championship · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pride Park Stadium, Derby · updated 2026-10-25
Derby County welcome Norwich City to Pride Park Stadium in Derby in Championship Gameweek 14 action on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Derby County have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 8% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. Norwich City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Norwich City are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and Derby County at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Derby County 1.38, Norwich City 1.68.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Derby County: form and key numbers
In style Derby County play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.97 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Norwich City: form and key numbers
In style Norwich City keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.64 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Derby County vs Norwich City: season averages side by side
| Derby County | Per match this season | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 |
| 1.97 | xG conceded | 1.64 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 14.1 |
| 3.8 | On target | 5.0 |
| 48.5 | Possession % | 52.3 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Derby County
- Jacob Widell Zetterström GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 44 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 33% of his position)
- David Ozoh DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 35 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 6% of his position)
Norwich City
- Pelle Mattsson CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 42 · Reads the game, Chance creator (top 11% of his position)
- Paris Maghoma CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 38 · Dribbler, Creator (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Joe Ward
Joe Ward, 31 · Derby County · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 47
Joe Ward, 31, plays as a wide midfielder for Derby County in the Championship. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and dispossessed. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 47
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 47
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.02 / 90 | 93% |
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 93% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.28 / 90 | 71% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 43% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Press-resistant, Reads the game.
- What Joe Ward is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Derby County vs Norwich City prediction
Norwich City should have more of the ball; Derby County are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Norwich City like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.38 for Derby County and 1.68 for Norwich City - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 61%. Norwich City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Derby County 1-2 Norwich City
Derby County vs Norwich City betting tips
- Tip 1: Norwich City win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.05 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff City Saturday 31 October 2026
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Derby County vs Norwich City: questions and answers
When is Derby County vs Norwich City?
Derby County vs Norwich City is on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 14.
Where is Derby County vs Norwich City played?
At Pride Park Stadium, Derby, Derby County's home ground.
Who will win Derby County vs Norwich City?
Norwich City are the favourites: Derby County 31%, draw 25%, Norwich City 44%. Our prediction is Derby County 1-2 Norwich City.
Who is the player to watch in Derby County vs Norwich City?
Joe Ward of Derby County: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Derby County vs Norwich City?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.