Elche vs Valencia Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche · updated 2026-10-18
Elche welcome Valencia to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Elche have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 11% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Valencia have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 11% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Elche are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 28% and Valencia at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Elche 1.48, Valencia 1.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Elche: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.22 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Elche vs Valencia: season averages side by side
| Elche | Per match this season | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.00 |
| 1.56 | xG conceded | 1.45 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 11.1 |
| 4.2 | On target | 2.7 |
| 50.9 | Possession % | 46.3 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.69 |
Players to watch
Elche
- Federico Redondo DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
- Fer Niño CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 63 · Accurate shooter, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- José Gayà LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Secure passer, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: David Otorbi
David Otorbi, 19 · Valencia · WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64
David Otorbi, 19, plays as a winger for Valencia in La Liga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and successful dribbles. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 64
- RW · Winger Natural, 64
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.55 / 90 | 79% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.18 / 90 | 76% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.26 / 90 | 72% |
| Dispossessed | 0.82 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected goals | 0.25 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- What David Otorbi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open David Otorbi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Elche vs Valencia prediction
Elche should have more of the ball; Valencia like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.48 for Elche and 1.04 for Valencia - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 51%. Elche have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Elche 1-0 Valencia
Elche vs Valencia betting tips
- Tip 1: Elche win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.52 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Friday 23 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Saturday 24 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
- Valencia vs Villarreal Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Athletic Club vs Getafe Sunday 25 October 2026
- Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis Sunday 25 October 2026
Elche vs Valencia: questions and answers
When is Elche vs Valencia?
Elche vs Valencia is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Elche vs Valencia played?
At Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche, Elche's home ground.
Who will win Elche vs Valencia?
Elche are the favourites: Elche 46%, draw 28%, Valencia 26%. Our prediction is Elche 1-0 Valencia.
Who is the player to watch in Elche vs Valencia?
David Otorbi of Valencia: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Elche vs Valencia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.