Excelsior vs FC Twente Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 11
Eredivisie · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam · updated 2026-10-25
Excelsior welcome FC Twente to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam in Eredivisie Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Excelsior have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate. FC Twente have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 56% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Twente are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 25% and Excelsior at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Excelsior 1.17, FC Twente 1.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Excelsior: form and key numbers
In style Excelsior are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.4).
- Shots: 10.7 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
FC Twente: form and key numbers
In style FC Twente keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created, 0.86 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 20.4 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Excelsior vs FC Twente: season averages side by side
| Excelsior | Per match this season | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.24 |
| 1.79 | xG conceded | 0.86 |
| 10.7 | Shots | 20.4 |
| 3.8 | On target | 7.0 |
| 44.0 | Possession % | 58.3 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Players to watch
Excelsior
- Irakli Yegoian WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 39 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 18% of his position)
- Casper Widell CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 36 · Dominant in the air, Blocks shots (top 13% of his position)
FC Twente
- Daouda Weidmann CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 45 · Creator, Dribbler (top 10% of his position)
- Sondre Ørjasæter LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 40 · Press-resistant, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst, 34 · FC Twente · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 45
Wout Weghorst, 34, plays as a centre-forward for FC Twente in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 45
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 55% | 85% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 77% |
| Key passes | 1.60 / 90 | 68% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.97 / 90 | 62% |
| Expected goals | 0.63 / 90 | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter.
- What Wout Weghorst is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Wout Weghorst's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Excelsior vs FC Twente prediction
FC Twente should have more of the ball, with Excelsior likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.17 for Excelsior and 1.78 for FC Twente - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 58%. FC Twente have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Excelsior 1-2 FC Twente
Excelsior vs FC Twente betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Twente win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.96 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Excelsior vs FC Twente: questions and answers
When is Excelsior vs FC Twente?
Excelsior vs FC Twente is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 11.
Where is Excelsior vs FC Twente played?
At Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam, Excelsior's home ground.
Who will win Excelsior vs FC Twente?
FC Twente are the favourites: Excelsior 24%, draw 25%, FC Twente 51%. Our prediction is Excelsior 1-2 FC Twente.
Who is the player to watch in Excelsior vs FC Twente?
Wout Weghorst of FC Twente: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 45 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs FC Twente?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.