Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction and Betting Tips | Russian Premier League Gameweek 14
Russian Premier League · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 11:00 UTC · Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Voronezh · updated 2026-10-25
Fakel welcome Dinamo Moskva to Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh in Russian Premier League Gameweek 14 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Fakel have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 8% of them. At home they average 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate. Dinamo Moskva have played 12 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Dinamo Moskva are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 25% and Fakel at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fakel 0.88, Dinamo Moskva 1.73.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Fakel: form and key numbers
In style Fakel play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.05 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.6).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 2.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 42% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Dinamo Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Dinamo Moskva keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.92 a match created, 1.06 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.1).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva: season averages side by side
| Fakel | Per match this season | Dinamo Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.05 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.92 |
| 1.62 | xG conceded | 1.06 |
| 10.9 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 2.4 | On target | 5.3 |
| 46.7 | Possession % | 60.6 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 42% |
| 42% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Fakel
- Axel Aymeric Gnapi Dable CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 28 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
- Matvey Bardachev CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 26 · Box defender, Ball-winner (top 26% of his position)
Dinamo Moskva
- Maksim Osipenko CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 31 · Long passer, Disciplined (top 5% of his position)
- David Ricardo CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 27 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Rubens
Rubens, 25 · Dinamo Moskva · LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 34
Rubens, 25, plays as a full-back for Dinamo Moskva in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and tackles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 34
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 29
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 27
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.14 / 90 | 87% |
| Tackles | 4.18 / 90 | 83% |
| Passes | 63.00 / 90 | 61% |
| Interceptions | 1.65 / 90 | 52% |
| Duels won | 6.85 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Ball-winner.
- What Rubens is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva prediction
Dinamo Moskva should have more of the ball, with Fakel likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 0.88 for Fakel and 1.73 for Dinamo Moskva - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 49%. Dinamo Moskva have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Fakel 1-2 Dinamo Moskva
Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva betting tips
- Tip 1: Dinamo Moskva to win 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.61 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Russian Premier League previews
- Zenit vs Dynamo Makhachkala Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rubin Kazan vs Fakel Saturday 31 October 2026
- Dinamo Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Saturday 31 October 2026
- Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar Saturday 31 October 2026
- Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva Sunday 1 November 2026
- Dynamo Makhachkala vs Rostov Sunday 1 November 2026
- Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akron Sunday 1 November 2026
- Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 1 November 2026
Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva: questions and answers
When is Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva?
Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 11:00 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 14.
Where is Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva played?
At Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Voronezh, Fakel's home ground.
Who will win Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva?
Dinamo Moskva are the favourites: Fakel 18%, draw 25%, Dinamo Moskva 57%. Our prediction is Fakel 1-2 Dinamo Moskva.
Who is the player to watch in Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva?
Rubens of Dinamo Moskva: a defensive full-back with a Moneyball Score of 34 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Dinamo Moskva?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.