FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 9
Bundesliga · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne · updated 2026-10-25
FC Köln welcome Bayer 04 Leverkusen to RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne in Bundesliga Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
FC Köln have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 24% and FC Köln at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Köln 1.44, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.89.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Köln: form and key numbers
In style FC Köln are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.26 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.4).
- Shots: 19.7 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 57.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| FC Köln | Per match this season | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 2.7 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.26 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 19.7 |
| 5.0 | On target | 6.2 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 57.8 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Players to watch
FC Köln
- Jahmai Simpson-Pusey CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 67 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 1% of his position)
- Marvin Schwäbe GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 5% of his position)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 68 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 71
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 71
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 4.77 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.83 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.45 / 90 | 77% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen should have more of the ball; FC Köln are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Bayer 04 Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.44 for FC Köln and 1.89 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 65%. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: FC Köln 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.33 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München Sunday 25 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 Friday 30 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Saturday 31 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 31 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn Saturday 31 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 31 October 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 31 October 2026
- FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday 31 October 2026
FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 9.
Where is FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen played?
At RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, FC Köln's home ground.
Who will win FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are the favourites: FC Köln 29%, draw 24%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 48%. Our prediction is FC Köln 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.