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FC Twente vs Thun: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede · updated 2026-10-09

FC Twente host Thun in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at De Grolsch Veste. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes FC Twente clear favourites at 81%, puts the draw at 11% and expects about 4.9 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

FC Twente81%fair odds 1.23
Draw11%fair odds 9.20
Thun8%fair odds 12.60

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

FC TwentePer match this seasonThun
4Matches4
3.3Goals scored1.8
1.3Goals conceded3.0
2.20Expected goals (xG)1.11
23.5Shots13.3
9.0On target4.8
61.0Possession %43.3
25%Clean sheets %25%
50%Both teams scored %50%
8.3Corners4.5
2.3Yellow cards2.5
7.09Average rating6.59

Averages per match from Sportmonks; Thun in its domestic league.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.