FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 12
Eredivisie · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht · updated 2026-10-25
FC Utrecht welcome NEC Nijmegen to Stadion Galgenwaard in Utrecht in Eredivisie Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
FC Utrecht have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.7 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate. NEC Nijmegen have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: FC Utrecht 35%, the draw 23%, NEC Nijmegen 42%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Utrecht 1.72, NEC Nijmegen 1.88.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 70%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Utrecht: form and key numbers
In style FC Utrecht are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.42 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 90% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
NEC Nijmegen: form and key numbers
In style NEC Nijmegen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.91 a match created, 1.73 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.1).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 90% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: season averages side by side
| FC Utrecht | Per match this season | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.7 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.42 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.91 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | 1.73 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 4.4 | On target | 4.7 |
| 46.1 | Possession % | 59.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 90% | Both teams scored % | 90% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
FC Utrecht
- Adrian Blake LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 39 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 8% of his position)
- Yoann Cathline LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 38 · Crosser, Draws fouls (top 23% of his position)
NEC Nijmegen
- Kaj Sierhuis CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 42 · High shot volume, Dominant in the air (top 28% of his position)
- Clement Mutahi Bischoff LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 39 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 20% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Artem Stepanov
Artem Stepanov, 19 · FC Utrecht · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 41
Artem Stepanov, 19, plays as a centre-forward for FC Utrecht in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and big chances missed. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 41
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.31 xG/shot | 99% |
| Big chances missed | 0.00 / 90 | 90% |
| Goals | 0.80 / 90 | 68% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 64% |
| Shots on target | 45% | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Rarely wastes a big chance.
- What Artem Stepanov is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Artem Stepanov's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
NEC Nijmegen should have more of the ball, with FC Utrecht likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.72 for FC Utrecht and 1.88 for NEC Nijmegen - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 70%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: FC Utrecht 2-2 NEC Nijmegen
FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 42%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.60 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Eredivisie previews
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Sunday 25 October 2026
- AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente Sunday 25 October 2026
- Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard Saturday 31 October 2026
- SC Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen Saturday 31 October 2026
- PSV vs Willem II Saturday 31 October 2026
- SC Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles Saturday 31 October 2026
- Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Saturday 31 October 2026
- PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 1 November 2026
FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: questions and answers
When is FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 12.
Where is FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen played?
At Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht, FC Utrecht's home ground.
Who will win FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
It is close: FC Utrecht 35%, draw 23%, NEC Nijmegen 42%. Our prediction is FC Utrecht 2-2 NEC Nijmegen.
Who is the player to watch in FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Artem Stepanov of FC Utrecht: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 41 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.