Getafe vs Lugano: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe · updated 2026-10-09
Getafe host Lugano in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Lugano favourites at 56%, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Getafe 0.82, Lugano 1.62.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 45%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Zaid Romero
Zaid Romero, 26 · Getafe · CB · Stopper
Moneyball Scout picks Zaid Romero as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 32, defensive 54).
- Interceptions: 2.26 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of centre-backs
- Long balls: 3.66 per 90 minutes, better than 81% of centre-backs
- Duels won: 5.22 per 90 minutes, better than 75% of centre-backs
Lugano score 2.2 goals a match this season from 2.38 expected: stopping them runs through Zaid Romero.
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Long passer.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Getafe | Per match this season | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.6 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.38 |
| 1.37 | xG conceded | – |
| 11.7 | Shots | 17.5 |
| 2.7 | On target | 6.0 |
| 40.3 | Possession % | 57.7 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 29% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 7.03 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Getafe in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Getafe
- Ramón Terrats midfielder · rating 7.38 · 6 apps
- David Soria goalkeeper · rating 7.18 · 7 apps
- Iván Azón midfielder · rating 6.97 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.