Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir Prediction and Betting Tips | Süper Lig Gameweek 11
Süper Lig · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir), İzmir · updated 2026-10-25
Göztepe welcome İstanbul Başakşehir to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir) in İzmir in Süper Lig Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Göztepe have played 8 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. İstanbul Başakşehir have played 8 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Göztepe are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 22% and İstanbul Başakşehir at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Göztepe 2.07, İstanbul Başakşehir 1.67.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Göztepe: form and key numbers
In style Göztepe are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.97 a match created, 1.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 40.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
İstanbul Başakşehir: form and key numbers
In style İstanbul Başakşehir play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.61 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir: season averages side by side
| Göztepe | Per match this season | İstanbul Başakşehir |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.61 |
| 1.83 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 16.3 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 5.6 | On target | 4.0 |
| 40.4 | Possession % | 51.8 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 38% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Göztepe
- Rhaldney CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 35 · Reads the game, Creator (top 16% of his position)
- André Henrique CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 33 · Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots (top 15% of his position)
İstanbul Başakşehir
- Andreas Skov Olsen RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 34 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Ivan Brnic LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 31 · Big-chance creator, Press-resistant (top 15% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Juan
Juan, 24 · Göztepe · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 44
Juan, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Göztepe in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 44
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.28 xG/shot | 98% |
| Shots on target | 64% | 95% |
| Key passes | 2.00 / 90 | 75% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.27 / 90 | 62% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Juan is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir prediction
İstanbul Başakşehir should have more of the ball, with Göztepe likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Göztepe are a threat in the air and from set pieces; İstanbul Başakşehir go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.07 for Göztepe and 1.67 for İstanbul Başakşehir - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 71%. Göztepe have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Göztepe 3-1 İstanbul Başakşehir
Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir betting tips
- Tip 1: Göztepe win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 52% by the model, 3.74 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Süper Lig previews
- Göztepe vs Çorum FK Sunday 25 October 2026
- Beşiktaş vs İstanbul Başakşehir Monday 26 October 2026
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor Monday 26 October 2026
- Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe Monday 26 October 2026
- Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Friday 30 October 2026
- Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK Saturday 31 October 2026
- Kocaelispor vs Rizespor Saturday 31 October 2026
- Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe Saturday 31 October 2026
Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir: questions and answers
When is Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir?
Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 11.
Where is Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir played?
At Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir), İzmir, Göztepe's home ground.
Who will win Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir?
Göztepe are the favourites: Göztepe 47%, draw 22%, İstanbul Başakşehir 31%. Our prediction is Göztepe 3-1 İstanbul Başakşehir.
Who is the player to watch in Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir?
Juan of Göztepe: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Göztepe vs İstanbul Başakşehir?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.