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Hearts vs Nordsjælland: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh · updated 2026-10-09

Hearts host Nordsjælland in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Tynecastle Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Nordsjælland clear favourites at 79%, puts the draw at 14% and expects about 3.5 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Hearts7%fair odds 13.77
Draw14%fair odds 7.06
Nordsjælland79%fair odds 1.27

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

HeartsPer match this seasonNordsjælland
2Matches6
0.0Goals scored2.8
3.0Goals conceded0.5
1.25Expected goals (xG)2.42
17.0Shots19.3
5.0On target6.7
65.5Possession %60.0
0%Clean sheets %67%
0%Both teams scored %17%
10.0Corners5.8
1.0Yellow cards1.2
6.62Average rating7.08

Averages per match from Sportmonks; Hearts in its domestic league.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.