İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Prediction and Betting Tips | Süper Lig Gameweek 10
Süper Lig · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul · updated 2026-10-25
İstanbul Başakşehir welcome Samsunspor to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in İstanbul in Süper Lig Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
İstanbul Başakşehir have played 8 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Samsunspor have played 9 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 11% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, İstanbul Başakşehir are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 23% and Samsunspor at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: İstanbul Başakşehir 2.00, Samsunspor 1.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
İstanbul Başakşehir: form and key numbers
In style İstanbul Başakşehir play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.61 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Samsunspor: form and key numbers
In style Samsunspor keep the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.28 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor: season averages side by side
| İstanbul Başakşehir | Per match this season | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.61 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.28 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.41 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 4.0 | On target | 3.2 |
| 51.8 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 11% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 44% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
İstanbul Başakşehir
- Ivan Brnic LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 31 · Big-chance creator, Press-resistant (top 15% of his position)
- Eldor Shomurodov CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 30 · Takes high-quality shots, Clinical finisher (top 6% of his position)
Samsunspor
- Joe Mendes RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 32 · Secure passer, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Celil Yüksel CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 30 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Andreas Skov Olsen
Andreas Skov Olsen, 26 · İstanbul Başakşehir · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 34
Andreas Skov Olsen, 26, plays as a winger for İstanbul Başakşehir in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 34
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 31
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.77 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.39 / 90 | 82% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.24 / 90 | 65% |
| Key passes | 2.63 / 90 | 59% |
| Dispossessed | 0.77 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Andreas Skov Olsen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Andreas Skov Olsen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor prediction
Samsunspor should have more of the ball; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.00 for İstanbul Başakşehir and 1.11 for Samsunspor - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 59%. İstanbul Başakşehir have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: İstanbul Başakşehir 2-1 Samsunspor
İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor betting tips
- Tip 1: İstanbul Başakşehir to win 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.11 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Süper Lig previews
- Göztepe vs Çorum FK Sunday 25 October 2026
- Beşiktaş vs İstanbul Başakşehir Monday 26 October 2026
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor Monday 26 October 2026
- Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe Monday 26 October 2026
- Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Friday 30 October 2026
- Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK Saturday 31 October 2026
- Kocaelispor vs Rizespor Saturday 31 October 2026
- Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe Saturday 31 October 2026
İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor: questions and answers
When is İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 10.
Where is İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor played?
At Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul, İstanbul Başakşehir's home ground.
Who will win İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
İstanbul Başakşehir are the favourites: İstanbul Başakşehir 57%, draw 23%, Samsunspor 20%. Our prediction is İstanbul Başakşehir 2-1 Samsunspor.
Who is the player to watch in İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Andreas Skov Olsen of İstanbul Başakşehir: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 34 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.