Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Střelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou · updated 2026-10-09
Jablonec host Brighton & Hove Albion in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Stadion Střelnice. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Brighton & Hove Albion slight favourites at 39%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Jablonec 1.39, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.47.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper, 25 · Brighton & Hove Albion · LWB · Attacking wing-back
Moneyball Scout picks Maxim De Cuyper as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 73, defensive 32).
- Expected goals: 0.25 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of wing-backs
- Key passes: 2.54 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wing-backs
- Accurate crosses: 1.69 per 90 minutes, better than 81% of wing-backs
Jablonec concede only 0.8 goals a match this season: breaking that defence is the job of a attacking wing-back like Maxim De Cuyper.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Jablonec | Per match this season | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 3.2 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.87 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.18 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.74 |
| 7.7 | Shots | 19.0 |
| 3.5 | On target | 5.8 |
| 46.3 | Possession % | 64.6 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.55 | Average rating | 7.03 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Brighton & Hove Albion in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Pascal Groß midfielder · rating 7.86 · 5 apps
- Maxim De Cuyper midfielder · rating 7.28 · 5 apps
- Malick Yalcouyé midfielder · rating 7.24 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.